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Signs of recession pop up everywhere—in stats

Official stats don’t do justice to Turkey’s deepening recession.  Data from industries, which tend to be more update paint the…

Signs of recession pop up everywhere—in stats

Official stats don’t do justice to Turkey’s deepening recession.  Data from industries, which tend to be more update paint the picture of an economy developing potholes all over the road. We ask the reader to join us for a brief tour of the “Turkish street”.



House prices on a downward trend:  Home sales, which had declined by 27% yoy in November, posted a moderate recovery and increased by 2.9% in December. In this period, annual decrease at mortgaged home sales declined to 79% from 86%. In 2018, home sales declined by 2.4% compared to the previous year, wrote Is Bank research.

House price increases in Turkey kept losing momentum in November. The annual increase in the quality-adjusted hedonic house price index dropped to 6.6%, the lowest level in the series announced since 2010. The real decrease in house prices was realized as 12.35% in November.

White goods not helped by tax cuts: Due to the tax incentives, the contraction in white goods sales slowed down in the last 2 months of the year. The annual rate of decline, which was 50% in October, was realized as 15% in December. In 2018, domestic sales decreased by 17%.


Upward trend in NPL ratio…

Gross non-performing loans kept rising and registered the fastest yearly increase since 2009 with 56.4% as of January 25. Gross non-performing loans reached 99 billion TRY in this period.

Having followed an upward trend in the recent months and reaching above 4% for the first time since November 2010, as of January 18, NPL ratio became 4.06% as of January 25. In the same period, NPL ratio for  consumer and commercial loans were 3.67% and 4.15%, respectively.


Domestic air travel slumps for the second month in a row: According to the State Airports data total number of passengers in January was 14.0 mn, indicating 4.8% decline y/y. The weakness mainly stemmed from 10.6% slump in domestic passenger figure as the macro conditions continued to weigh on domestic demand. On the other hand, thanks to the robust tourism numbers, international pax figure posted a 6.2% y/y growth despite the high base effect, writes OYAK Invest.


Turkey announced to have been hit with a sharp 59.02 percent year-on-year decline in its sales of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles. In January, the Automotive Distributors’ Association (ODD) unveiled on Monday, Turkey registered the sale of roughly 14,400 passenger cars and light commercial vehicles. According to an ODD statement, Turkey recorded a 58.74 percent drop in its automobile sales to hit 11,000 vehicles. Meanwhile, the country sold 3,394 commercial vehicles last month to post a 59.91 percent fall compared to a year ago.



Turkey’s electricity consumption decreased by 2.16 percent in January compared to the same month of 2018, according to Turkey’s Energy and Natural Resources Ministry on Tuesday, report Anatolian News Agency.


Turkey’s electricity imports from neighboring countries decreased by 13.64 percent and reached 142.59 million kilowatt-hours compared to 165.12 million kilowatt-hours in January 2018.


Turkish ferry company İstanbul Deniz Otobüsleri (IDO), part-owned by international transport mogul Brian Souter, began talks with banks on restructuring its debts, Reuters said.


The company had borrowed as much as $500 million to buy new vessels and equipment but began finding it difficult to repay the money because its income is in Turkish liras, the news wire said, citing information from web portal Loan Pricing Corporation. IDO has employed financial institution Lazard to hold talks with creditors, Reuters said. In November, IDO suspended some routes on the recommendation of lenders, but said it would re-open them after a public outcry.




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