Real Turkey video: Sanctions threats dominate risk outlook16 July 2019
In this episode of “The Real Turkey” vis a vis sanctions, Atilla Yesilada’s guest Guldem Atabay argues that the US government’s warnings will soon turn tangible to be applied gradually. She adds that contrary to what was reflected in the Turkish media, the “friendship” between Turkish President Erdogan and his US counterpart Trump; does not have the muscle to prevent CAATSA sanctions; they can only be delayed by Trump at best. Turkey’s drilling activities in Eastern Mediterranean will also prompt sanctions from the European Union. Yet, such are likely to be less painful -barring the signal effect- given the Turkey’s role in stopping Syrian refugee flow to Greece/the EU.
Nevertheless, the cuts in EU aids and European Investment Bank lending stand out as the most crucial ones while the renewal of the customs union deal which is also at stake was not an imminent expectation anyway. Former economy czar Babacan’s resignation from the AKP and formation of a new political party against Erdogan might create a domino effect within the AKP and thus should be monitored closely.