Social Network

Economy

IMF notwithstanding, no V shape recovery in Turkey

Since government aid to unemployed and businesses can’t compensate for total losses, the growth potential of the economy will diminish in the interim.  Turkey will grow in 2021 under most plausible scenarios, but it will be a slow and arduous journey to normalcy

IMF notwithstanding, no V shape recovery in Turkey

 

IMF’s recent global forecasts foresee 5% GDP decline for Turkey in 2020, and a similar increase in 2021.  These are based on the world economies recovering from the pandemic in the second half of the year, which IMF admits may be unduly optimistic. However, Turkey’s Health Ministry declared Tuesday evening that with some termination and perseverance, Turkey can lick the epidemic in two weeks.  I explain the reasons why the Health Ministry is unreasonably optimistic.  Turkey ought to prepare for a prolonged war against corona, which reflects to depressed activity over the summer months. Since government aid to unemployed and businesses can’t compensate for total losses, the growth potential of the economy will diminish in the interim.  Turkey will grow in 2021 under most plausible scenarios, but it will be a slow and arduous journey to normalcy.

 

You can follow our  English language YouTube videos  @ REAL TURKEY:   https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKpFJB4GFiNkhmpVZQ_d9Rg

 

And content at Twitter: @AtillaEng

Facebook:  Real Turkey Channel:   https://www.facebook.com/realturkeychannel/

 

 

Banner

Related News

Related News