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  • COVID-19 outbreak could lead to unemployment of 10 million

    The service industry has come to a screeching halt, including the tourism market, restaurants and entertainment, the report noted.“It’s possible that more than half the workers in these industries lost their jobs

  • Turkey’s April consumer confidence nose dives

    The severe drop of course stems from the coronavirus related lockdowns and its economic shock felt especially on the unemployment side. Thus, looking forward, even if President Erdogan wants to see Turkey back on normalization trend after the Ramadan, the pandemic related social distancing is likely to prevail until the very end of 2020. Thus the confidence and spending will remain low fueled by the weak Turkish lira.

  • Reuters poll:  Turkish economy to shrink in 2020

    The economy is expected to grow again next year by 3.7%, according to the poll's median. For the first quarter of this year, the official report due on May 29 is forecast to show growth of 4.4%

  • Turkey is considering injecting capital into state-run banks

    The initiative could involve the Treasury issuing special lira-denominated bonds and would focus on funding Ziraat Bank, Halkbank and Vakıfbank, Turkey’s three largest state-run lenders, Bloomberg said. The capital buffers of those companies have been eroded by heavy lending, the people said.

  • No hope for TL despite several positive announcements

    As a result of this torrent of measures and announcements, dollar/TL declined below the 6.90 critical resistance—for an hour or so. But the souring mood in global markets precipitated new TL sales

  • Central Bank and Bank Regulator try to change the currency game

    BRSA announced a new ratio for the banks at the weekend while CBRT Governor Murat Uysal held an interview with Anadolu Agency. Can these steps change the bleak fate of Turkish Lira, or the economy?

  • Erdogan should break his taboo on IMF aid

    The economic news remains grim: In March Turkey posted its biggest monthly budget deficit, with tax deferrals shrinking government revenue. As the U.S. and European countries keep extending their lockdowns, the outlook for the mainstays of the Turkish economy, manufacturing and tourism, are worsening.

  • Turkey is holding talks with other centralbanks for swap lines

    Timothy Ash from Bluebay Asset Management questions who amongst the G20 would be willing to extend a swap line with Turkey in terms of either having enough ammunition or the willingness.

  • Health  Minister heralds Covid peak “next week”

    "At [Turkey's] level, most countries are implementing a full lockdown. A partial lockdown can be good, it can balance keeping some of the economy functioning while still trying to contain the outbreak" Rossman told CNN

  • Turkish banks:  How to flatten the NPL Curve?

    Our model predicts a 4pp increase in Turkish banks’ NPL ratio to 9.3% to June 2021 followed by a 0.5pp drop by year end

  • What is Turkey’s problem with IMF?

    President Erdogan is vehemently opposed to IMF.  Turkey is a member of IMF and Erdogan’s best performance was when Turkey was under an IMF program.  Why the hostility? 

  • JP Morgan:  Will Central Bank cut  rates further?

    Given the short FX position of the corporate sector and the high external financing needs of the economy, lira weakness also poses risks to financial stability, and we expect the CBRT to consider this in next week’s rate decision

  • Who will rescue Turkey private  lenders?

    Private banks rightly ask the questions of who will bail them out, when loans generously distributed to needs consumers and companies with no cashflow fail to return?  Even before the Covid-19 outbreak laid low the Turkish economy, the bad loan problem in the banking system was endemic, papered over by ever-more generous “regulatory forbearance”  by BRSA

  • IMF notwithstanding, no V shape recovery in Turkey

    Since government aid to unemployed and businesses can’t compensate for total losses, the growth potential of the economy will diminish in the interim.  Turkey will grow in 2021 under most plausible scenarios, but it will be a slow and arduous journey to normalcy

  • Marc Pierini:  Economic ripples of  corona in Turkey

    In Turkey, as almost everywhere else around the world, the post-pandemic short- and medium-term prospects are grim. But there are two areas where the pandemic offers Ankara an opportunity to amend policy choices and genuinely improve the country’s situation